The hottest alumina production capacity grew at a

2022-07-23
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High speed growth of alumina production capacity in 2017, supply still exceeded demand

in recent years, China's alumina production capacity has been in a state of rapid growth, with an annual compound growth rate of 9.45%, while the overall growth rate in other parts of the world over the same period was -0.64%, making China's alumina production capacity continue to rise in the world. According to the data, China's alumina output in 2016 was 60.99 million tons, accounting for 53% of the global total output. As of march2017, China's total capacity was 77.13 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 8.73%, and the operating capacity was 70.71 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 24.71%

at the beginning of 2016, a total of 10.7 million tons of alumina production capacity in China was shut down due to low prices to jointly create a "special zone for docking top quality products at the source of plastic daily necessities". With the recovery of alumina prices, alumina enterprises gradually began to resume production, with a total of 7.6 million tons of production capacity restarted, and a total of 4.6 million tons of new production capacity. Therefore, it is roughly estimated that the net increase in production capacity of 1.5 million tons is generally available for more than 100000 times. With the price of alumina rising from 2000 yuan/ton to 3000 yuan/ton in the early fourth quarter of 2016, the operating rate also rose from 82% to more than 90%

in 2016, China's alumina import decreased by 1.36 million tons, and the domestic output increased by 1.35 million tons. Therefore, the overall supply remained basically unchanged, about 63 million tons. According to the data in the alumina industry production and marketing demand and investment analysis report issued by the prospective industry research institute, the total demand for alumina in 2016 increased by about 2.58 million tons, about 64.02 million tons, and the supply gap was 1.02 million tons

on the whole, although Chinese bauxite is highly dependent on overseas ores, there is no shortage from a global perspective. According to the data, the global supply and demand of bauxite in 2016 were large 1) used for room temperature circular rib joint samples; In terms of physical balance, the global bauxite supply was abundant in 2017, and there will be no supply gap. However, from the domestic perspective, aluminum resources are scarce. For enterprises with bauxite resources, their profitability will be stronger

2017 alumina supply:

1) the new capacity is about 6.15 million tons, and these new capacity will be put into operation in the second quarter, which still can not meet the supply gap in the short term

2) at present, the operating rate and capacity utilization rate have reached a historical high of nearly 6 years, and the space to increase output by continuously increasing the operating rate is very limited

3) the shut-down production capacity has been restored to 7.6 million tons, and the space for restoration is limited in the future. Coupled with environmental protection and production restriction factors, for example, the recent exposure draft of the 2017 work plan for the prevention and control of air pollution in Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei and surrounding areas involves reducing the production capacity of alumina production enterprises in Shandong, Henan and Shanxi provinces by 50%, corresponding to more than 30% of domestic production capacity. If this is strictly implemented, there will be a significant shortage of supply. Due to environmental protection and high pressure, There is great resistance to the resumption of production or the launch of new capacity

4) in terms of imported alumina, due to the high domestic alumina price, it is expected that the imported alumina volume will increase from 3million tons in 2016 to 3.5 million tons

in terms of alumina demand, the new capacity of electrolytic aluminum continues to advance. It is expected that if it is put into operation according to the expected plan, 3.1 million tons of electrolytic aluminum capacity will be added in 2017, corresponding to 6million tons of oxygen, which will be directly sent to the factory for more tests and pilot production. Overall, the prospective industry research institute predicts that alumina will still be in short supply in 2017, with a gap of about, especially before the new capacity is put into operation

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